Everence CIO Chad Horning Addresses Economic Outlook Amid Public Uncertainty

In the first of a series of financial seminars to be held at VMRC, Chad Horning, Chief Investment Officer for Everence Financial based in Goshen, Indiana, presented a detailed analysis of today’s economic climate and how it could affect your wallet and investment portfolio. He outlined key economic indicators, structural challenges and the growing disconnect between macroeconomic performance and public sentiment.

His talk was held over two sessions, one in the morning and one in the evening, on Wednesday, May 28.  

Horning began his presentation by framing the discussion around the fundamental components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): consumer spending, investment, government expenditures and net exports. He emphasized the tangible ways these economic forces affect individuals and communities alike.

He reported that U.S. GDP declined by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, attributing the contraction in part to the ongoing effects of tariffs, which he described as a tax burden shared by both suppliers and consumers. While inflation has retreated significantly from its 2022 peak of 9% to a current level of 2.5%, Horning noted that prices remain high, keeping cost-of-living concerns front of mind for many Americans.

The national unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, a historically low figure that reflects a tight labor market. Still, Horning was quick to acknowledge the metric's limitations, noting that it excludes those who are not actively seeking employment. Despite these positive headline figures, public perception of the economy remains unfavorable. Horning pointed to political partisanship and anxiety over future conditions as likely drivers of the sentiment gap.

In his overview of financial markets, Horning drew a distinction between stock performance and the real economy. “Markets are forward-looking,” he said, adding that investor confidence has been shaken by global uncertainty, regulatory shifts, and rising interest rates. He highlighted the recent outperformance of non-U.S. equities over domestic markets and noted the dominant role played by a handful of large-cap U.S. technology firms—commonly referred to as the “Magnificent Seven.”

Turning to fiscal policy, Horning expressed concern over the nation’s debt burden, which has climbed to 120% of GDP. This elevated debt ratio has contributed to higher interest rates, placing added strain on both government borrowing and consumer credit. He presented historical data on interest rate trends, linking the recent upward trajectory to inflationary pressures and increased public spending.

Horning also addressed emerging influences on global investment, including artificial intelligence, geopolitical instability, and the proliferation of digital assets like cryptocurrencies. He warned that new regulatory frameworks and financial innovations could reshape the investment landscape in unpredictable ways.

Providing historical context, Horning referenced past periods of volatility, including the Great Depression, World War II, and the 2008 financial crisis, to underscore the resilience of the U.S. economy. “Over the last 90 years, despite immense challenges, markets have recovered and grown,” he said.

In closing, Horning stressed the importance of long-term investment strategies, particularly in the face of short-term market volatility. During a Q&A session, he defined long-term investing as a horizon of ten years or more and urged attendees to consult with financial advisors to develop personalized plans.

While the macroeconomic data may paint a picture of progress, Horning acknowledged that numbers alone do not calm public unease. “Understanding the economy requires more than tracking indicators,” he said. “It requires connecting policy, perception, and personal experience.”

Additionally, Everence team members from the Harrisonburg, Virginia Office and Souderton, Pennsylvania office were in attendance. Dave Warren, Atlantic Region Vice President, Randy Nyce, Managing Director for the Souderton, Pennsylvania region, and Financial Planners Glen Kauffman, Steve Burkholder and Chan Gingerich of the Harrisonburg office joined Horning to take part in the conversation and talk with audience members.

Everence will present on more topics this fall, including “Understanding Healthcare Plans” and “Tax Wise: Giving Strategies for Seniors.”  These presentations are hosted by VMRC’s Foundation.

Everence also supports VMRC programs and projects through generous sponsorships.

VMRC is proud of its longstanding partnership with the company and routinely recommends Everence to staff members and residents for their financial planning purposes.